Opion| China can be a force in global aviation if Comac rises to challenges
Boeing’s and Airbus’ issues give the Chinese planemaker an opening, but geopolitics may affect certification in the US and Europe
Published: 9:30am, 10 Nov 2024 in South China Morning Post
Aeroplane makers including Boeing and Airbus, the world’s two largest manufacturers, have faced increasing challenges in recent years, after reports of technical and safety concerns.
Most recently, the engine of an Airbus A350caught fireduring a Cathay Pacific Airways flight while arear door plugon a Boeing 737-9 Max blew out during an Alaska Airlines flight. Both companies are also involved in a US regulatory investigation intofalse paperworkrelated to the authentication of aerospace-grade titanium parts.
Supply chain constraints are an additional challenge as Boeing and Airbus struggle to clear their backlog. Boeing delivered just 291 commercial planes in the first nine months of the year, down from 371 for the same period last year. Airbus did better, delivering 497 commercial aircraft, up from 488 for the previous corresponding period. But both manufacturers continue to wrestle with a massive backlog of more than 14,100 commercial aircraft.
Into the breach has stepped Comac, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China. The state-owned company’s C919 jet, launched commercially last year, isdesigned to competewith Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’ A320 planes. This is widely seen as a bid to reduce Chinese dependence on the Western aviation giants and assert China’s influence in the global aviation market.
While Boeing and Airbus face pressure to upgrade their passenger aircraft to make them more sustainable after the global industryformally committedto net zero emissions by 2050, Comac has designed its C919 with environmental sustainability as amain objective– the jet made its first commercial flight on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in September.
SAFcan be made from algae or waste from agricultural, forestry, food and municipal sources. It can cut life-cycle carbon emissions by up to 80 per cent compared with petroleum-based jet fuel.
Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific grounds A350 fleet due to engine component failure
Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific grounds A350 fleet due to engine component failure
The CF919 also has CFM International’s Leap-1C engine, which promises better fuel consumption, fewer emissions and is quieter than previous-generation engines. For now, three Chinese airlines operate C919 flights, namely,China Eastern Airlines, Air China and China Southern.
But international interest in the C919 is growing, especially as supply chain hiccups, including an engine recall, affect the smooth delivery of new planes from established manufacturers. For instance, GallopAir, a Brunei-based start-up airline, has placed an order, while Vietnam Airlines, Indonesia’s TransNusa and Brazil’s Total Linhas Aereas have reportedly expressed interest.
Comac’s bigger ambition, however, is to break into the European market. To do that, it has to first secure certification from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), a process it reportedly hopes to completeas soon as next year.
The C919 is at the third stage of the four-step process. In July, EASA technicians conducted an on-the-ground inspection of the jet’s flight simulator and assessed its compliance with European regulatory requirements for structural and electrical systems. The feedback was reportedly positive.
China’s home-grown passenger jet C919 celebrates first anniversary of maiden flight
China’s home-grown passenger jet C919 celebrates first anniversary of maiden flight
If Comac wants to further its global ambitions, it will also need the nod from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), though this may be another story due to challenging geopolitical dynamics. The FAA, as well might the EASA, could subject the C919 to deeper scrutiny amid concerns over the reliability of Chinese-made products.
Any delays in the stamp of approval will shut Comac out of the key markets of Europe and the United States. To overcome geopolitical hurdles, Comac must work on building trust and partnerships with potential buyers of its aircraft.
Comac’s expansion plans come as the aviation market is expected to grow strongly in the Asia-Pacific. Airbus forecasts that the region’s commercial aircraft services market will expand from US$52 billion this year to US$129 billion by 2043, with passenger air traffic growing at a compound annual growth rate of 4.81 per cent. About 19,500 new aircraft must be introduced over the next two decades to meet this new demand.
The C919 is off to an auspicious start. Feedback from passengers and themediahas been encouraging, highlighting flight stability and the comfortable travel experience. But the challenges it faces remain manifold.
On top of securing international certification, Comac has to ramp up its production capacity if it is to seriously compete with Boeing and Airbus. For instance, Airbus aims to produce 75 A320 planes per month in 2027 while Comac’s Shanghai factory is aiming for 150 C919s a year by 2028.
While the C919 is already thought to be much less expensive than the Boeing and Airbus jets it wants to compete with, its price competitiveness can be strengthened by increasing the localisation of its components.
Whether Comac – and its C919 – can take off will depend on how well the Chinese upstart navigates all of the challenges. Should Comac win US and European certifications for its C919 and successfully ramp up its production capabilities, China could emerge as an important competitive force in global aviation.
In an industry long dominated by the West – particularly in the large commercial jet space, which is almost exclusively occupied by Boeing and Airbus – the emergence of more players can only bring down prices and improve the efficiency of the market.
More competition will also push aircraft manufacturers to invest more in technological advances for safer, more efficient and environmentally sustainable planes. The entry of more players can also grow the supply chain, allowing for a more rapid response to changing air travel demand.
Hopefully, China’s Comac will open the door to a better and healthier global aviation industry.
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3285171/china-can-be-force-global-aviation-if-comac-rises-challenges?firstTimeRegister=true
